Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.449463 1.893640 2.487695 3.360028 4.643056 6.519352e+00 9.587637e+00
2025-01-26 0.961026 1.418887 2.137999 3.414222 5.776974 1.033240e+01 2.092261e+01
2025-02-02 0.707688 1.157355 1.968910 3.685035 7.686603 1.817212e+01 5.644890e+01
2025-02-09 0.530894 0.945488 1.788711 3.881419 10.012257 3.257049e+01 1.828279e+02
2025-02-16 0.397426 0.758047 1.567646 3.878207 12.271284 5.656994e+01 7.244272e+02
2025-02-23 0.296117 0.595602 1.322625 3.652197 13.896434 9.162657e+01 3.740310e+03
2025-03-02 0.220136 0.460582 1.079833 3.252757 14.457983 1.340328e+02 2.886872e+04
2025-03-09 0.183049 0.402679 1.013312 3.434374 19.130341 3.154590e+02 1.202440e+09
2025-03-16 0.152470 0.349863 0.935910 3.527488 24.482343 8.012354e+02 NaN
2025-03-23 0.132020 0.316360 0.902575 3.822304 34.477822 3.254725e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.114621 0.285219 0.861761 4.066064 47.832036 2.118527e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 0.097034 0.247759 0.779094 3.973628 57.473322 1.700866e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 0.080298 0.208601 0.673999 3.628782 61.111554 2.005626e+06 NaN
2025-04-20 0.070451 0.188064 0.634513 3.732262 81.981931 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.063718 0.175469 0.622657 4.075124 127.352417 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.057391 0.162292 0.601640 4.333416 192.545485 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.050992 0.147001 0.562812 4.359384 259.863286 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.044639 0.130201 0.508438 4.121293 299.260072 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.038570 0.113032 0.444956 3.674766 290.376422 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.035576 0.106447 0.434198 3.900515 463.361691 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.032638 0.099315 0.417100 4.021832 701.178878 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.030588 0.095060 0.414269 4.380267 1349.167166 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.028586 0.090471 0.407247 4.679088 2627.721781 NaN NaN